CHARLOTTE, N.C., Sept. 12, 2023 — The highest inflation rate in a generation helped drive record annual growth in 2022 for multifamily revenue (9.26%), expenses (9.20%), and net operating income (9.30%). These figures eclipse the five-year average growth from 2018-2022 of 4.38% for revenue, 5.09% for expenses, and 3.82% for net operating income. These findings are revealed in Thirty Capital Performance Group’s 2023 State of Multifamily Operating Performance Chartbook. The Chartbook, released today, cost-effectively equips owners/operators and asset managers with the information needed to more accurately project performance, budget, and pro formas for the next 12-24 months.
The report provides insights into the relative performance of the US multifamily market for garden-style, mid-rise, high-rise, senior, student, and manufactured housing subtypes. The report covers the 20 largest CMSAs over the past five years based on CMBS data, including trends for property taxes, insurance, utilities, repairs, property management fees, and payroll.
“With expense growth greater than revenue growth over these recent periods, and with inflation still above the Federal Reserve target rate, it’s imperative for owners and investors to take a close look at the contribution to expense growth across operating statement line items, as well as to differences across multifamily subtypes and geographic regions,” said Rob Finlay, Thirty Capital’s CEO & Founder.
Among the insights shared is that the last few years have been unusual for the apartment industry as operating expenses have consistently risen faster than revenues. This trend will likely persist through 2023 and into the first half of 2024 due to elevated inflationary pressures from payroll, insurance, taxes, and other items, challenging net operating incomes. The impact will vary significantly across markets, product types, and individual assets. In response to these dynamics, Thirty Capital Performance Group analyzed multifamily CMBS data for over 15,000 properties across 30 major markets to show that these factors are essential to consider in underwriting future expense growth.
“In the Chartbook, we review annually reported data on the six most crucial operating statement line items, the top 20 CMSAs by property count, and major multifamily subtypes. The data shows record 2022 revenue, expense, NOI growth, and significant variations across CMSAs and subtypes,” said Webster Hughes, Ph.D., Managing Director of Analytics and Economics for Thirty Capital Performance Group.
For additional granularity and considering performance differences, the report also separates garden and mid-rise properties into those backing institutional-sized loans versus those in the Freddie Mac Small Balance Loan Program.
“While many organizations perform this analysis manually, we are leveraging technology and data science to streamline the process and make the data more accessible to the market,” said Dr. Hughes.
Thirty Capital Performance Group offers additional support to multifamily stakeholders to show them a more granular application of data in valuations, cap rate determination, and peer-to-peer benchmarking.
Thirty Capital Performance Group is a real estate advisory company that provides expertise at the intersection of capital markets, technology, data analytics, and data science to deliver results to clients. Its multidisciplinary team solves the challenges faced by owners, operators, property managers, asset managers, and institutional investors in validating cashflow and economic assumptions, providing independent, unbiased insights and recommendations.
About Thirty Capital
Thirty Capital is a vertically integrated CRE investment and advisory firm dedicated to protecting cashflow, generating equity returns, and creating alpha from commercial real estate